国际劳工组织《世界就业和社会展望：2022年趋势》警告称，由于疫情持续对全球劳动力市场产生重大影响，复苏进程将缓慢且不确定。
国际劳工组织新闻(日内瓦)--国际劳工组织下调了对2022年劳动力市场复苏的预测，预计与2019年第四季度相比，全球工作时间短缺相当于5200万个全职工作岗位。此前在2021年5月的全年预测中，预计2022年将出现 2600 万相当于全职工作岗位的缺口。
根据国际劳工组织《世界就业和社会展望：2022年趋势》（《2022年趋势》），尽管这一最新预测较2021年的情况有所改善，但仍比疫情前全球工作时间少了近2%。
预计至少到2023年，全球失业人数仍将高于疫情前的水平。2022年失业人数估计为2.07亿，而2019年为1.86亿。国际劳工组织报告还警告称，由于许多人离开了劳动力市场，对就业的总体影响远高于这些数字所显示的程度。2022年，全球劳动参与率预计将比2019年低1.2个百分点。
2022年预测的下调在某种程度上反映了病毒近期的变种，如德尔塔和奥密克戎，对劳动世界的影响，以及疫情未来走向的重大不确定性。
《2022年趋势》报告警告称，危机对不同工人群体和国家的影响存在明显差异。这些差异加深了国家内部和国家之间的不平等，并削弱了几乎每个国家的经济、金融和社会结构，无论其处于何种发展阶段。这种破坏可能需要数年时间才能修复，对劳动参与率、家庭收入和社会以及可能还有政治凝聚力，都有潜在的长期影响。
世界上所有地区的劳动力市场都感受到了这种影响，尽管复苏模式存在巨大差异。欧洲和北美地区显示出最令人鼓舞的复苏迹象，而东南亚和拉丁美洲及加勒比地区的前景则最为消极。在国家层面，高收入国家的劳动力市场复苏最为强劲，而中低收入经济体的情况最差。
报告称，预计危机对女性就业的不成比例的影响将在未来几年持续存在。教育和培训机构的关闭“将对青年产生长期的连锁影响”，特别是那些无法上网的青年。
国际劳工组织总干事盖·莱德表示，“这场危机已经持续了两年，前景仍然脆弱，复苏之路缓慢而不确定。我们已经看到劳动力市场可能遭受的持久损害，以及令人担忧的贫困和不平等加剧。许多工人被要求转向新的工作类型一一例如为了应对国际旅行和旅游业的长期低迷。”
“如果没有劳动力市场的广泛复苏，就谈不上真正的复苏。同时，必须建立在体面劳动原则上，包括安全和健康，平等，社会保护和社会对话，才能确保可持续的复苏。”
《2022年趋势》包括对2022年和2023年的全面劳动力市场预测。报告评估了世界各地劳动力市场的复苏情况，反映了各国推动疫情复苏的不同做法，并分析了对不同劳动者群体和经济部门的影响。
国际劳工组织的报告显示，与以往的危机一样，临时就业缓冲了疫情对一些人的冲击。尽管许多临时工作被终止或不再续约，但也有替代性工作被创造，包括为失去长期工作的劳动者创造的工作。平均而言，临时工作的发生率没有变化。
《2022年趋势》还提供了一些关键的政策建议，目的是在国家和国际层面从危机中实现充分包容的、以人为本的复苏。这些建议是基于国际劳工组织187个成员国在2021年6月通过的《全球行动呼吁：从新冠肺炎危机中实现包容性、可持续和有韧性的以人为本复苏》。
英文原文
ILO downgrades labour market recovery forecast for 2022
The ILO’s World Employment and Social Outlook Trends 2022 report warns of a slow and uncertain recovery, as the pandemic continues to have a significant impact on global labour markets.
ILO NEWS (Geneva) - The International Labour Organization (ILO) has downgraded its forecast for labour market recovery in 2022, projecting a deficit in hours worked globally equivalent to 52 million full-time jobs, relative to the fourth quarter of 2019. The previous full-year estimate in May 2021 projected a deficit of 26 million full-time equivalent jobs.
While this latest projection is an improvement on the situation in 2021, it remains almost two per cent below the number of global hours worked pre-pandemic, according to the ILO World Employment and Social Outlook – Trends 2022 (WESO Trends).
Global unemployment is expected to remain above pre-COVID-19 levels until at least 2023. The 2022 level is estimated at 207 million, compared to 186 million in 2019. The ILO’s report also cautions that the overall impact on employment is significantly greater than represented in these figures because many people have left the labour force. In 2022, the global labour force participation rate is projected to remain 1.2 percentage points below that of 2019.
The downgrade in the 2022 forecast reflects, to some extent, the impact that recent variants of COVID-19, such as Delta and Omicron, are having on the world of work, as well as significant uncertainty regarding the future course of the pandemic.
The WESO Trends report warns of the stark differences in the impact the crisis is having across groups of workers and countries. These differences aredeepening inequalities within and among countries and weakening the economic, financial and social fabric of almost every nation, regardless of development status. This damage is likely to require years to repair, with potential long-term consequences for labour force participation, household incomes and social and – possibly - political cohesion.
The effects are being felt in labour markets in all regions of the world, although a great divergence in recovery patterns can be observed. The European and the North American regions are showing the most encouraging signs of recovery, while South-East Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean have the most negative outlook. At the national level, labour market recovery is strongest in high-income countries, while lower-middle-income economies are faring worst.
The disproportionate impact of the crisis on women’s employment is expected to last in the coming years, the report says. While the closing of education and training institutions “will have cascading long-term implications” for young people, particularly those without internet access.
“Two years into this crisis, the outlook remains fragile and the path to recovery is slow and uncertain,” said ILO Director-General, Guy Ryder. “We are already seeing potentially lasting damage to labour markets, along with concerning increases in poverty and inequality. Many workers are being required to shift to new types of work – for example in response to the prolonged slump in international travel and tourism.”
“There can be no real recovery from this pandemic without a broad-based labour market recovery. And to be sustainable, this recovery must be based on the principles of decent work – including health and safety, equity, social protection and social dialogue.”
The WESO Trends includes comprehensive labour market projections for 2022 and 2023. It gives assessments of how labour market recovery has unfolded worldwide, reflecting different national approaches to pandemic recovery and analysing the effects on different groups of workers and economic sectors.
The ILO report shows that, as in previous crises, temporary employment created a buffer against the shock of the pandemic for some. While many temporary jobs were terminated or not renewed, alternative ones were created, including for workers who had lost permanent jobs. On average, the incidence of temporary work did not change.
The WESO Trends also offers a summary of key policy recommendations aimed at creating a fully inclusive, human-centred recovery from the crisis at both national and international levels.These are based on the “Global Call to Action for a Human-Centred Recovery from the COVID-19 Crisis that Is Inclusive, Sustainable and Resilient,” that was adopted by the ILO’s 187 Member States in June 2021.